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i think we all have nevada going blue? >> yes. >> remarkably, we all agree on something. >> we all agree on nevada. >> never happened before. >> yeah. i have it going blue because primarily because of early voting. early voting in nevada has 48,000 more democrats than republicans going to the polls in early voting, casting 700,000 votes. if projections go as planned and they get an 80% turnout, that means 70% of the votes have already been cast there. so me, that seems a pretty good indication of where this state is going. i'll give sail ver lia silver l mitt romney, and that is a lot like colorado. nevada has a very high mormon population. 7%, which is actually fairly high, and again, mormons accounted for a quarter of the electorate in the caucuses. so i think if they turn out in big numbers and it's been really hard to tell where they're at, because they haven't been very vocal, but if they turn out in big numbers, i think mitt romney could get the state. i don't expect him to. >> i would expect him to turn out in big n
i think we all have nevada going blue? >> yes. >> remarkably, we all agree on something. >> we all agree on nevada. >> never happened before. >> yeah. i have it going blue because primarily because of early voting. early voting in nevada has 48,000 more democrats than republicans going to the polls in early voting, casting 700,000 votes. if projections go as planned and they get an 80% turnout, that means 70% of the votes have already been cast there. so me, that...
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Nov 1, 2012
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having the governor of nevada, you know, that's kind of standard political stuff. i'm not sure how much that helps. >> we've just gotten some new numbers from visible measure, which is a tracking firm. there's a provocative obama ad that's gotten nearly 3 million views in the past week. i want to play a little clip. >> your first time shouldn't be with just anybody. you want to do it with a great guy. someone who really cares about and understands women. a guy who cares whether you get health insurance, spaeskly whether you get birth control. my first time voting was amazing. before i was a girl. now i'm a woman. i went to the polling station, pulled back the curtain. i voted for barack obama. >> now, some conservatives and others have called this ad a little creepy, but what do you think? is it effective? >> well, you have to remember, it's a targeted ad. it has driven some people in the right crazy. it's targeted to snarky, urban, liberal women. to the virginity analogy is kind of apt for that. i think they think it was clever. she's been called the voice of her
having the governor of nevada, you know, that's kind of standard political stuff. i'm not sure how much that helps. >> we've just gotten some new numbers from visible measure, which is a tracking firm. there's a provocative obama ad that's gotten nearly 3 million views in the past week. i want to play a little clip. >> your first time shouldn't be with just anybody. you want to do it with a great guy. someone who really cares about and understands women. a guy who cares whether you...
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Nov 1, 2012
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right now he's en route to nevada. and later this evening, it is on to colorado. in what advisers call a slightly altered but affirmative stump speech, the president has promised to lay out his case of who he's fighting for and why. >> retraining at the age of 55 for a career in biotechnology. she needs a champion. >> and these are live pictures now from where governor romney is on the ground in virginia, in the southern part of the state. it is the governor's second event, by the way, of the day there. earlier today in central virginia, the governor resumed his message that he is the change candidate. this election, something he started before the storm. >> if the president were to be re-elected, you're going to see high levels of unemployment continue and stalled wage growth, if any wage growth at all, just like we've seen over the last four years. >>> and we're also getting a look at a new round of battleground polls all showing the president leading or running neck and neck with governor romney. in iowa the president is ahead six appointments among likely vote
right now he's en route to nevada. and later this evening, it is on to colorado. in what advisers call a slightly altered but affirmative stump speech, the president has promised to lay out his case of who he's fighting for and why. >> retraining at the age of 55 for a career in biotechnology. she needs a champion. >> and these are live pictures now from where governor romney is on the ground in virginia, in the southern part of the state. it is the governor's second event, by the...
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we hope to get on john raulson out of nevada. this is interesting for many reasons, and i wanted to talk specific alally about nevada wh the foreclosures are high and unemployment rate is high. latinos in that state could help president obama win it in a significant way. let's see what we see in regarding the white vote and in a key state like nevada the latino vote being the difference. >> if everybody recalls the election of 2010, when reid was running against sharon inkeningle, all the polls showed engel was ahead by significant margins. what happened was at the end of the day when you looked at the scorecard, latinos went in favor to harry reid 9-10. that was because sharon engel's campaign was so egregious when it came to the latino votes. pollsters feel that la tyne notices won't turn out, and a lot of working class latinos are cell phones. this is the dreary part of polling. you often miss a big swath of potential when it comes to voting to the new voter, which is not only latinos but women and youth. what we're going to s
we hope to get on john raulson out of nevada. this is interesting for many reasons, and i wanted to talk specific alally about nevada wh the foreclosures are high and unemployment rate is high. latinos in that state could help president obama win it in a significant way. let's see what we see in regarding the white vote and in a key state like nevada the latino vote being the difference. >> if everybody recalls the election of 2010, when reid was running against sharon inkeningle, all the...
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leading by more than 2 in nevada, ohio and iowa. as a slighter margins in new hampshire and colorado, governor romney only leads in more at a point in florida and is narrowly ahead in virginia. that gives a reason for them to, let's say, be concerned. >> they need to be concerned because it is not just the enthuse yack enthuse em that's missing p. this is what barack obama does better than anyone else. man test right now in the early vote of look at nevada, north carolina, iowa. mitt romney with needs to win 54 to 60% of the remaining votes in the states in order to drop into the victory. that's a huge lift. i think when you couple the fact that democratic base is much more fired up with the fact that obama for america has been organizing for the last four years. they keep talking about pennsylvania, you can't drop into pennsylvania the weekend before an election, and expect to tip the vote just by buying ads when you have the other team with a fantastic ground operation. >> drive by campaigning won't do it. when you look at pennsyl
leading by more than 2 in nevada, ohio and iowa. as a slighter margins in new hampshire and colorado, governor romney only leads in more at a point in florida and is narrowly ahead in virginia. that gives a reason for them to, let's say, be concerned. >> they need to be concerned because it is not just the enthuse yack enthuse em that's missing p. this is what barack obama does better than anyone else. man test right now in the early vote of look at nevada, north carolina, iowa. mitt...
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Nov 4, 2012
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nevada is probably almost gone. and the way that the demographics have shifted in nevada this may be the last election where nevada is really in play for republicans. there's also an interesting thing that happened there on the ground. ron paul supporters sort of took over the republican party in nevada and kind of destroyed it in a way. the groundwork there is really poor for the republican party to the extent that the idaho republican party has actually been sending mail into the state. that's how bad it is. >> so why is mitt romney going to pennsylvania? >> well, i think he's looking at the fact that he can't win in ohio, he's behind there. even his people are sort of acknowledging that that's falling off the map. he has to either win in wisconsin which is also looking very much out of reach. or he has to figure out some other path of pennsylvania. i don't think it's credible but he's trying to do at least a head fake to figure out you some other path to get there. >> jonathan, to you. you might have thought that
nevada is probably almost gone. and the way that the demographics have shifted in nevada this may be the last election where nevada is really in play for republicans. there's also an interesting thing that happened there on the ground. ron paul supporters sort of took over the republican party in nevada and kind of destroyed it in a way. the groundwork there is really poor for the republican party to the extent that the idaho republican party has actually been sending mail into the state....
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Nov 3, 2012
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ohio, wisconsin, nevada. are we at a point where the only hope for romney there's something wrong in the method oflg these state polls? >> i think we're about at that point opinion he has a couple of days left for him to make a come back. there isn't a single poll, a single nonpartisan poll in ohio, wisconsin or nevada that shows romney in the lead. and, yes, you know the polls have been wrong before and it's conceivable that things can be off. you can ask about sharon engel if polls are right. the overwhelming majority of the time when someone holds a lead of this magnitude, this consistently, they wine up winning. and, you know, there are reasons to think the polls could be off. it's tough to talk to people on cell phones. assumptions about turn out are more important than ever. but, yeah, you're right i think the polls have to be wrong at this state level. >> polls ask who are you going to vote for but there's data around polls who do you think will win and that's extraordinarily predictive. why is that qu
ohio, wisconsin, nevada. are we at a point where the only hope for romney there's something wrong in the method oflg these state polls? >> i think we're about at that point opinion he has a couple of days left for him to make a come back. there isn't a single poll, a single nonpartisan poll in ohio, wisconsin or nevada that shows romney in the lead. and, yes, you know the polls have been wrong before and it's conceivable that things can be off. you can ask about sharon engel if polls are...
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we're going to win nevada. we're going to win new hampshire. i think we have an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. and it also could be close. >> check those numbers, what do you make of those states? is that a good list? >> i think the ceiling is somewhere 300, 303 if you want to be exact the numbers i've done. if you throw in north carolina it could be 318 max. that's possible. they could all be 51, 49 at the end of the day. i do want to say i think a lot of us, we're sort of victims of 2004. before 2004 we were all more convinced of the challenger incumbent rule. that somehow challengers always got the undecided and then a tie goes to the challenger. then you're happened when bush won frankly as many of the undecided as he did. then you'd have to go back to '76 the last time the person with momentum lost at the end. lost the popular vote. that was ford. ford had the momentum but carter won in the end. even gore, he had the last-second momentum. he did win the popular vote. having the momentum has it in the
we're going to win nevada. we're going to win new hampshire. i think we have an even chance of winning virginia and florida. so it could be a big win. and it also could be close. >> check those numbers, what do you make of those states? is that a good list? >> i think the ceiling is somewhere 300, 303 if you want to be exact the numbers i've done. if you throw in north carolina it could be 318 max. that's possible. they could all be 51, 49 at the end of the day. i do want to say i...
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he kicks it off in the battleground blitz in wisconsin, nevada, and colorado. when he makes his final campaign stop in des moines, iowa, at a rally with the first lady, that's the only stop that she joins him on. the president will have visited eight of the nine battleground states. the one that he's not going to is north carolina. the 2012 presidential election could hinge on this, will the firewall of iowa, ohio, and wisconsin hold up? and you only have to look at the president's travel over the last five days of the campaign to find out that's where the campai campaign believes the race will be decided. one of them has to be the state of ohio. the president has events in ohio four out of five days on the trail. he stopped in iowa, wisconsin, and colorado two times, each will be in florida and virginia, new hampshire, nevada just once before this campaign is over. today the president will begin laying out what aides say is his closing argument, making a stronger case for government. he will point to the way forward to real change. it will say this apparently
he kicks it off in the battleground blitz in wisconsin, nevada, and colorado. when he makes his final campaign stop in des moines, iowa, at a rally with the first lady, that's the only stop that she joins him on. the president will have visited eight of the nine battleground states. the one that he's not going to is north carolina. the 2012 presidential election could hinge on this, will the firewall of iowa, ohio, and wisconsin hold up? and you only have to look at the president's travel over...
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nevada is probably almost gone. and the way that the demographics have shifted in nevada this may be the last election where nevada is really in play for republicans. there's also an interesting thing that happened there on the ground. ron paul supporters sort of took over the republican party in nevada and kind of destroyed it in a way. the groundwork there is really poor for the republican party to the extent that the idaho republican party has actually been sending mail into the state. that's how bad it is. >> so why is mitt romney going to pennsylvania? >> well, i think he's looking at the fact that he can't win in ohio, he's behind there. even his people are sort of acknowledging that that's falling off the map. he has to either win in wisconsin which is also looking very much out of reach. or he has to figure out some other path of pennsylvania. i don't think it's credible but he's trying to do at least a head fake to figure out you some other path to get there. >> jonathan, to you. you might have thought that
nevada is probably almost gone. and the way that the demographics have shifted in nevada this may be the last election where nevada is really in play for republicans. there's also an interesting thing that happened there on the ground. ron paul supporters sort of took over the republican party in nevada and kind of destroyed it in a way. the groundwork there is really poor for the republican party to the extent that the idaho republican party has actually been sending mail into the state....
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paul ryan heads to nevada, colorado, ohio and wisconsin. all right. take a look at this. yes, that is new jersey governor chris christie greeting homeland security chief as the pair toured a relief center in hoboken sunday. christie last sun said he didn't give a damn about the presidential election as he dealt with the disaster. on sunday he laughed at the notion that he wasn't still loyal to mitt romney. >> i don't understand why telling the president of the united states he's done a good job when he's done a good job equals an endorsement. fact of matter is, mitt romney knows this, by the way, so does the president of the united states. i endorsed mitt romney 13 months ago because i thought he was the best guy for the job. on tuesday i'm voting for mitt romney because i think he's the best guy for the job. it doesn't mean i can't turn to the president of the united states of america and say to him, thank you, sir, for providing good leadership in this crisis and helping the people of new jersey and extend my hand of friendship to him. this shows you how broken our poli
paul ryan heads to nevada, colorado, ohio and wisconsin. all right. take a look at this. yes, that is new jersey governor chris christie greeting homeland security chief as the pair toured a relief center in hoboken sunday. christie last sun said he didn't give a damn about the presidential election as he dealt with the disaster. on sunday he laughed at the notion that he wasn't still loyal to mitt romney. >> i don't understand why telling the president of the united states he's done a...
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here's a look where polls close at 10:00 eastern, iowa, montana, nevada and utah. humans -- even when we cross our t's and dot our i's, we still run into problems. namely, other humans. which is why, at liberty mutual insurance, auto policies come with new car replacement and accident forgiveness if you qualify. see what else comes standard at libertymutual.com. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? [ male announcer ] the way it moves. the way it cleans. everything about the oral-b power brush is simply revolutionary. oral-b power brushes oscillate, rotate and even pulsate to gently loosen and break up that sticky plaque with more brush movements than manual brushes and even up to 50% more than leading sonic technology brushes for a superior clean. oral-b power brushes. go to oralb.com fothe latest offers. yeah, the cisco ucsc series server, with the intel xeon processors, help us scale smoothly, like a perfect golf swing. how was it before? clunky and full of unnecessary impediments. like charles' swing. i heard that. >>> no matter what the
here's a look where polls close at 10:00 eastern, iowa, montana, nevada and utah. humans -- even when we cross our t's and dot our i's, we still run into problems. namely, other humans. which is why, at liberty mutual insurance, auto policies come with new car replacement and accident forgiveness if you qualify. see what else comes standard at libertymutual.com. liberty mutual insurance. responsibility. what's your policy? [ male announcer ] the way it moves. the way it cleans. everything about...
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i know it takes iowa and nevada. here it is. there it is. >> iowa, nevada have to get in there and we've got five more somewhere else. it's the swap of colorado. is it that? well. >> where do you have new hampshire? i can't see from here? >> we'll have to figure it out. it was off. this is what happens when we're missing it. the math is there. >> we'll take a break, we know it's there, the math is there. 269/269s. >> that's a nightmare. >> some say we'll be spending a lot of good times. >> here it is. that's what we're missing here. new hampshire over to there. >> new hampshire. >> and then we have it. >> thank you so much, chuck. >> bye now. >> chuck and the magic map. up next, mayor antonio villaraigosa in florida today, and house majority leader eric cantor from virginia, live from democracy plaza only here on msnbc. [ female announcer ] the humana walmart-preferred rx plan p-d-p gives you a low national plan premium... so you can focus on what really matters. call humana at 1-800-808-4003. colin powell: yes. when he took ove
i know it takes iowa and nevada. here it is. there it is. >> iowa, nevada have to get in there and we've got five more somewhere else. it's the swap of colorado. is it that? well. >> where do you have new hampshire? i can't see from here? >> we'll have to figure it out. it was off. this is what happens when we're missing it. the math is there. >> we'll take a break, we know it's there, the math is there. 269/269s. >> that's a nightmare. >> some say we'll be...
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so we're also looking at tight races in places like nevada, wisconsin, virginia. we got a handful of really tight races only won by a point or two. >> what about ohio? >> you know, very interesting. the parties have been looking at very different polling between democrat sherrod brown and republican josh mandell. democrats are not worried about sherrod brown. but republicans say we show it much closer. i suspect though, brown pulls it out. >> in the house, in florida particularly, you have some really controversial candidates. one is very outspoken tea party republican allen west and the other is allen grayson, running to return to the house. >> any state that could elect either one is an accepting and forgiving electorate or they can't make up their minds. allen west has actually put up his opponent's mug shot from when he was 19 years old and that's unprecedented. most tea party representatives, no matter how controversial they are, will be re-elected. >> what about harry reid in nevada? we've seen that he has a machine in nevada and can deliver. >> he has spent
so we're also looking at tight races in places like nevada, wisconsin, virginia. we got a handful of really tight races only won by a point or two. >> what about ohio? >> you know, very interesting. the parties have been looking at very different polling between democrat sherrod brown and republican josh mandell. democrats are not worried about sherrod brown. but republicans say we show it much closer. i suspect though, brown pulls it out. >> in the house, in florida...
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Nov 17, 2012
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they don't have texas, california, nevada, arizona. >> the biggest immediate battle which is not getting the attention it should, in fact, it's getting very little attention is part of this whole fiscal mess coming up is the existing tax credits for renewables expire. and you see republican senators saying above all else, don't renew them. >> i think that position though, congressman, it has to break. you see more and more republican governors from red states. >> we have to insist on that. that's the most immediate thing. >> one big question i think is when you get on a path, if there's going to be a sort of virtuous cycle that can be kicked in with renewables in which things start to beat their expectations and i want to hear about what that future might look like after this break. [ male announcer ] if you're eligible for medicare... now's a good time to think about your options. are you looking for a plan that really meets your needs? and your budget? as you probably know, medicare only covers about 80% of your part b medical expenses. the rest is up to you. so consider an aarp medica
they don't have texas, california, nevada, arizona. >> the biggest immediate battle which is not getting the attention it should, in fact, it's getting very little attention is part of this whole fiscal mess coming up is the existing tax credits for renewables expire. and you see republican senators saying above all else, don't renew them. >> i think that position though, congressman, it has to break. you see more and more republican governors from red states. >> we have to...
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nevada elects its first african-american congressman this year. america gets our first openly gay united states senator. america gets our first-ever asian american woman senator from hawaii. her seat in the house, i should note, gets filled by this woman, a democratic iraq war veteran. time going to tell you right now that her name is tulsy gabboard, because she is on the fast track to being very famous some day. speaking of iraq war veterans, tammy duckworth, veteran helicopter pilot, lost both her legs in congress, she is going to congress and sending home the opponent who mocked her for her war record, joe walsh. california relaxed its three strikes you're out law and rejected a law to cripple the power of unions. criminal legalization of marijuana was approved in washington and montana. sherrod brown and jon tester both won, held on to their seats. democrats won a senate seat in north dakota, of all places, a seat that nobody thought they could win. all of these states that had this hugely aggressive total republican takeover from the 2010 ele
nevada elects its first african-american congressman this year. america gets our first openly gay united states senator. america gets our first-ever asian american woman senator from hawaii. her seat in the house, i should note, gets filled by this woman, a democratic iraq war veteran. time going to tell you right now that her name is tulsy gabboard, because she is on the fast track to being very famous some day. speaking of iraq war veterans, tammy duckworth, veteran helicopter pilot, lost...
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. >> nevada. >> nevada. close but to dean heller. >> all right. next one? >> ohio. it's closed up but brown wins. >> does he outperform the president by what, two points? >> i don't know. >> yeah, yeah. >> if you were to guess, it's going to be a tight race? >> florida, nelson beats mak. then we get to virginia. >> where are you there? >> i guess i would give kane maybe a tiny finger on the scale. >> give it to blue? >> i don't know. >> we'll put it there for now. that gets us through the presidential toss-ups. let's go to the red states if you will. these are a ton of great states. >> flake wins. >> montana, that's scary. everybody, both sides say it's really too close. >> the libtarian candidate is going to make the winning number. >> it could. >> i guess he gets a couple. this guy john tester up a point or two and the question is does that save him? let's do edge tester. >> all right. next one? north dakota right next door. >> berg wins. it's very very close. >> the same way you feel about montana. >> yeah. >> not quite as close. >> yeah. >> let's stick in the re
. >> nevada. >> nevada. close but to dean heller. >> all right. next one? >> ohio. it's closed up but brown wins. >> does he outperform the president by what, two points? >> i don't know. >> yeah, yeah. >> if you were to guess, it's going to be a tight race? >> florida, nelson beats mak. then we get to virginia. >> where are you there? >> i guess i would give kane maybe a tiny finger on the scale. >> give it to blue?...
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not so much in nevada where there are more mexicans. you're right. this idea of focusing on foreign policy rather than on economic policy, not a good play. you saw mitt romney try to do that early on. he was in texas, for instance, early on in this race, and talking about those issues. but, again, in texas, that's a state he is going to win. have i been quite surprised that you haven't seen mitt romney out on the stump with people like susana martinez. he hasn't been out with brian sandoval. >> you've named those names. and to that point the ad i referred to might appeal to cuban americans in florida. but we know he has to extend his reach to the latino community beyond florida. with that said, i don't know what he would present on the table with immigration, but he has allies that are available to him, successful latinos within his own party that he has not reached out to broaden a message of, i don't know, economic recovery or whatever, the american dream story that susana martinez forever offered up at the rnc. >> yeah, very powerful message. >> a
not so much in nevada where there are more mexicans. you're right. this idea of focusing on foreign policy rather than on economic policy, not a good play. you saw mitt romney try to do that early on. he was in texas, for instance, early on in this race, and talking about those issues. but, again, in texas, that's a state he is going to win. have i been quite surprised that you haven't seen mitt romney out on the stump with people like susana martinez. he hasn't been out with brian sandoval....
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iowa, we're going to win wisconsin, nevada, we're going to win new hampshire. i think we have a chance of winning virginia and florida. it could be a big win. and it also could be close. >> joining me now, msnbc/"time" magazine nbc political analyst mark halperin. we just went through all those polls. the national polls, we know it's not a national referendum, but they all tell the same story. it's tied. the president seems to be leading but all within the margin of error. where is this race one day out? >> all within the margin of error. the obama campaign argued from the beginning that they're stronger in the swing states, they've targeted those states from the beginning. they don't look at the national number. in those swing states like in ohio they've targeted white working class voters on the auto bailout. and some of other battle ground states they've targeted hispanics and younger voters and african-americans and women. the president's team has a logic to what they've done. until we see the actual results, there's reason to believe that they're stronger
iowa, we're going to win wisconsin, nevada, we're going to win new hampshire. i think we have a chance of winning virginia and florida. it could be a big win. and it also could be close. >> joining me now, msnbc/"time" magazine nbc political analyst mark halperin. we just went through all those polls. the national polls, we know it's not a national referendum, but they all tell the same story. it's tied. the president seems to be leading but all within the margin of error. where...
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. >> yeah, nevada counts. we'll see. give me shameless plugs. >> i should promote my new website. my daughter was picked this week to be on the first ever girls flag football team for her high school. >> nice. everything is cooler in nevada. >> dan bolt's ebook out today. >> our paper has a beautiful new look. >> a great little piece up on therue.com about the election. check it out. >> i will see you from asia. i'm headed for 15 hours on a plane ride. we'll see you right back here, somebody will tomorrow. chris jansing is next. bye-bye. u 1% cash back on all purchases, plus a 50% annual bonus. and everyone...but her likes 50% more cash. but i'm upping my game. do you want a candy cane? yes! do you want the puppy? yes! do you want a tricycle? yes! do you want 50 percent more cash? no! ♪ festive. [ male announcer ] the capital one cash rewards card gives you 1% cash back on every purchase plus a 50% annual bonus on the cash you earn. it's the card for people who like more cash. what's in your wallet? it's the card for people who like more cash. those little things for you, life's
. >> yeah, nevada counts. we'll see. give me shameless plugs. >> i should promote my new website. my daughter was picked this week to be on the first ever girls flag football team for her high school. >> nice. everything is cooler in nevada. >> dan bolt's ebook out today. >> our paper has a beautiful new look. >> a great little piece up on therue.com about the election. check it out. >> i will see you from asia. i'm headed for 15 hours on a plane ride....
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those, of course, are iowa and nevada. the "real clear politics" polling average in iowa right now shows president obama ahead by two and in nevada president obama ahead by 2.7. then later in the night at 11:00 p.m. and then 1:00 a.m., we'll have california, hawaii, idaho, oregon, washington, and then the last poll closing in alaska. unless this is a very strange night, those races will be interesting for governors races and senate and house races and state issues, but not necessarily for the presidency. unless things go very, very differently than expected to go. this is how your election viewing is going to unfold hour by hour on tuesday night. if you just exclude the states for the presidential race where everybody pretty much knows exactly how it's going to go and just the states where there is some question as to what's going to happen, here is a clip and save thing for you about these states. the battlegrounds. all right? states that you know are going to be important and everybody thinks they're going to be close. t
those, of course, are iowa and nevada. the "real clear politics" polling average in iowa right now shows president obama ahead by two and in nevada president obama ahead by 2.7. then later in the night at 11:00 p.m. and then 1:00 a.m., we'll have california, hawaii, idaho, oregon, washington, and then the last poll closing in alaska. unless this is a very strange night, those races will be interesting for governors races and senate and house races and state issues, but not necessarily...
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Nov 5, 2012
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. >> and i have nevada in there. you live on the border of nevada and california. demographically gone for the republicans right now? >> this is a state that republicans should have won if we had the same hispanic turnout of the vote percentage under president bush, under john mccain. mitt romney would be ahead in nevada. it's not the case. president obama is going to win nevada. >> anybody here think the president will lose iowa? >> i think he's going to win iowa. and i changed my opinion on that. i thought he was going to lose iowa. >> you believe iowa. where do you fall? >> the president. >> look what this does here. this puts -- we put it up to 259 so th so then he's is 11 away. anybody thinks he's going to win florida? so you give romney this, florida. colorado, i think it will be the closest state in the country. >> i agree. >> where does it go? >> romney. >> romney wins. >> really close but romney. >> it might all come down to ohio. >> it may. and virginia we have sitting he here. so this could mean to me as a realistic scenario and i won't make you force th
. >> and i have nevada in there. you live on the border of nevada and california. demographically gone for the republicans right now? >> this is a state that republicans should have won if we had the same hispanic turnout of the vote percentage under president bush, under john mccain. mitt romney would be ahead in nevada. it's not the case. president obama is going to win nevada. >> anybody here think the president will lose iowa? >> i think he's going to win iowa. and i...
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he's spending a bunch of time in the firewall states like nevada and wisconsin and iowa. that's the way that he holds on even if romney somehow runs the table in florida, virginia, and ohio. if he can hold those other states, he can still win. >> chuck, you go along with that? >> i do. >> we need virginia and florida? >> i have been trying -- the sunday romney schedule had been in the dark. they had set it up. here is the sunday schedule. we just got it. iowa, ohio, pennsylvania, and virginia. now -- >> pennsylvania, they got a chance there? yes. is it likely? >> feels like they're looking for more paths and more opportunities. they basically failed to expand the map early. they're hoping maybe hope upon hope that they steal a state late, that somehow they could scramble the whole thing up with pennsylvania. the fact is they're close in pennsylvania, but it's lucy and the football close. >> there's a lot of work to be done by the democrats in southeastern pennsylvania. >> they do have work to do in western pennsylvania. there's a whole bunch of democratic -- your friend m
he's spending a bunch of time in the firewall states like nevada and wisconsin and iowa. that's the way that he holds on even if romney somehow runs the table in florida, virginia, and ohio. if he can hold those other states, he can still win. >> chuck, you go along with that? >> i do. >> we need virginia and florida? >> i have been trying -- the sunday romney schedule had been in the dark. they had set it up. here is the sunday schedule. we just got it. iowa, ohio,...
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poll numbers we've been seeing, we're going to see that latinos are going to hold florida, virginia, nevada and colorado. what we are seeing is very high support for the president. so what we are seeing is about 74% of latinos saying they are either certain to or very likely to vote for the president and the worst case scenario, 64% of latinos are saying they are certain to vote for the president. is so with that, you are going to secure those states and don't forget, there is still a smattering of latinos in north carolina, wisconsin and iowa. 3%, 4%, but when it is so close, that 3% of mobilized latino turnout is going to make the difference. >> on, let's talk about pennsylvania because when we bring up close, pennsylvania right now, 47 to 47 in a state that normally, the president would have a comfortable lead in. stephanie cutter said on "morning joe" today that it's not realistic that governor romney should make a play for pennsylvania or even think about winning pennsylvania. what's your reaction to that? >> i'm glad they're giving governor romney advice because if he follows the advi
poll numbers we've been seeing, we're going to see that latinos are going to hold florida, virginia, nevada and colorado. what we are seeing is very high support for the president. so what we are seeing is about 74% of latinos saying they are either certain to or very likely to vote for the president and the worst case scenario, 64% of latinos are saying they are certain to vote for the president. is so with that, you are going to secure those states and don't forget, there is still a...
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we think we have a good shot at virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. >> see how all those states were blue? his confident predictions that john mccain was going to win all those states in 2008 were wrong in every single instance. they lost every single one of those states. even though it seemed like he was going to win all of those states the day before the election. he didn't say like he felt they were going to win. he said they have the polling data that showed they were going to win and they did not win in any of those states. this is just part of the way the game is played. it's just bluffing. and that is important context for understanding what's going on in the last four days of the campaign. there are patterns to how presidential elections end. some of the same stuff happens every four years. specifically, in 1992, the republican candidate was poppy bush. he went and campaigned in pennsylvania. and then the next day, he lost pennsylvania. the next election, 1996, bob dole. right before the election,
we think we have a good shot at virginia, new hampshire, new mexico, nevada. that's the pathway to victory for john mccain. >> see how all those states were blue? his confident predictions that john mccain was going to win all those states in 2008 were wrong in every single instance. they lost every single one of those states. even though it seemed like he was going to win all of those states the day before the election. he didn't say like he felt they were going to win. he said they have...
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president needs to win just three in order to win a second term to get 271 electoral votes and those are nevada where there are six votes, wisconsin where there are ten and here in ohio, there are 18. and winning just those three of all these battle grounds gets you to 271 in a very narrow win, but that's what would do it for him and they feel very good about those three states. >> assuming they hold pennsylvania. >> that's true. that is a big point right there. >> i think there's a sense that florida might be moving in romney's direction. structurally, that's always been the most problematic of the battleground states for obama. and if i were betting, i would bet romney carries florida. >> and we're hearing from the romney side that there's a bit of a head fake there. >> it may be. what a lot of strategists have told me is if you're going to make a play for a state, you need to do it at least three weeks before election day. so one week out, not even a full week, makes it tough. it might be too little too late for mitt romney where they are spending a lot of money at this last minute. but they
president needs to win just three in order to win a second term to get 271 electoral votes and those are nevada where there are six votes, wisconsin where there are ten and here in ohio, there are 18. and winning just those three of all these battle grounds gets you to 271 in a very narrow win, but that's what would do it for him and they feel very good about those three states. >> assuming they hold pennsylvania. >> that's true. that is a big point right there. >> i think...
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nevada may well be one that we don't carry. what's interesting about ohio, that state does not have a large minority vote. it's about 85% white. if romney were getting the same white vote there he gets in virginia, where he is tied and the romney campaign is nervous, he would be winning ohio. that's also the story in o. pennsylvania. one quick footnote on pennsylvania. one reason the romney guys like it, even though historically it is more democratic, is there has not been a campaign there. they haven't had the $200 million of negative ads. so romney's numbers are better there in a lot of the states where they have trench warfare. >> people may not believe this, but there is a morning after this race, tom and savannah. and what happens in washington i after that? david brooks in his column writes about the fiscal cliff which happens at the end of thii year, big tax increases and also cuts. here's what he writes. if obama wins, he'll probably romney is more flexible than obama. he has more influence in washington. he is more lik
nevada may well be one that we don't carry. what's interesting about ohio, that state does not have a large minority vote. it's about 85% white. if romney were getting the same white vote there he gets in virginia, where he is tied and the romney campaign is nervous, he would be winning ohio. that's also the story in o. pennsylvania. one quick footnote on pennsylvania. one reason the romney guys like it, even though historically it is more democratic, is there has not been a campaign there....
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how do you think the president is going to perform in swing states like colorado and nevada? >> well, my view is that that hispanic vote, which is key in my state with 43%, it's key in nevada and colorado upwards of 20%, is going to come out in huge turnout because of the president's strong records are hispanics on job creation, health care, and immigration reform. and the perception that the romney campaign that the republicans have kind of written off hispanics. the harsh rhetoric against latinos on the dream act, on the immigration bill, in the primaries, i think it's going to be decisive. and what a president needs, a democratic needs to get reelected is 65% of the hispanic vote nationally and i think president obama is going to top that. and he's going to get close to 70%. and again, i believe that's going to be decisive. and it could be decisive in florida with a noncuban american latinos that trend republican but the central americans, that's who i was campaigning with in the last few days. >> i want to ask about something practical due to the gasoline shortage in new
how do you think the president is going to perform in swing states like colorado and nevada? >> well, my view is that that hispanic vote, which is key in my state with 43%, it's key in nevada and colorado upwards of 20%, is going to come out in huge turnout because of the president's strong records are hispanics on job creation, health care, and immigration reform. and the perception that the romney campaign that the republicans have kind of written off hispanics. the harsh rhetoric...
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then from his perch as a nevada state director this time around to get him re-elected. i'm biased, of course, but to me tuesday's victory was luke's victory as much as it was anyone else's. luke and the thousands like him, organizers of every hue and background and creed in states across the nation working pre'strously long hours and making democracy work, calling people, knocking on doors, sending e-mails, sitting through endless meetings and conference calls and sorting columns on spreadsheets and buying office spliets in bulk or slightly used so as to come in under budget. negotiating leases, getting yelled at by people, there were thousands of people across the country like my brother doing this work, and not just for ofa, from local candidates, city council on up. from the ballot initiatives that passed across the country giving us the first popular victories for marriage equality in three states and the beginning to end for our insane policy of marijuana prohibition. when the victory bell rings, we all rush to talk about the great men of history who made it so, th
then from his perch as a nevada state director this time around to get him re-elected. i'm biased, of course, but to me tuesday's victory was luke's victory as much as it was anyone else's. luke and the thousands like him, organizers of every hue and background and creed in states across the nation working pre'strously long hours and making democracy work, calling people, knocking on doors, sending e-mails, sitting through endless meetings and conference calls and sorting columns on...
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he's not going back to nevada. he's not going back to iowa. and he's not going to pennsylvania again. which is significant because the obama campaign in the end didn't take the bait on pennsylvania. they are sending bill clinton to pennsylvania, to philadelphia, tomorrow, but they're not sending the president there. >> what hasn't bill clinton done for barack obama? >> well, he was obama's great explainer. he was like the obama whisperer at the democratic convention in charlotte. he's been a campaigner. and he's been a good friend and increasingly somebody that the president relies on. if the president wins re-election, i'm convinced bill clinton's next job will be to help the president sell a budget deal to democrats who may not want to go along. that's almost a tougher job than getting the president re-elected. >> are you worried about the voter suppression that is taking place in ohio? it seems to be much more intense in ohio. much more organized, county to county, it looks like they have really done a job. the numbers are down. for instanc
he's not going back to nevada. he's not going back to iowa. and he's not going to pennsylvania again. which is significant because the obama campaign in the end didn't take the bait on pennsylvania. they are sending bill clinton to pennsylvania, to philadelphia, tomorrow, but they're not sending the president there. >> what hasn't bill clinton done for barack obama? >> well, he was obama's great explainer. he was like the obama whisperer at the democratic convention in charlotte....
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president obama is also maintaining his lead in nevada. in iowa, president obama is still ahead. the national average is closer, but president obama has been on the rise there as well. so early voting has been going on for weeks now. in some states, and there are some interesting numbers on party breakdown of early voters so far. now, most early voters have been identified as democrats in ohio, nevada, iowa, florida, and north carolina according to the associated press. republicans have the edge in colorado. let's turn to bob shrum, professor of public policy at nyu and contributor to the daily beast. great to have you with us tonight. let's leave the names out oft for a moment. obama and romney. let's just take candidate a and candidate b. who would you want to be right now with the numbers playing? >> you would want to be candidate a assuming that's the unmentionable who is the president of the united states. he has a lot of roots to 270 electoral votes. if you look at candidate b, candidate b isn't even going to florida in the next few days. you can interpret that in one of tw
president obama is also maintaining his lead in nevada. in iowa, president obama is still ahead. the national average is closer, but president obama has been on the rise there as well. so early voting has been going on for weeks now. in some states, and there are some interesting numbers on party breakdown of early voters so far. now, most early voters have been identified as democrats in ohio, nevada, iowa, florida, and north carolina according to the associated press. republicans have the...
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live picture of air force one which has just touched down in las vegas in the battleground state of nevada. the president is expected to come down those stairs at any moment. the campaign -- a day after witnessing the devastation of hurricane sandy and just five days before the election, nevada will be the second of three stops today for the president, which began in wisconsin and will ultimately end in colorado. and here with a preview of the last days of campaigning is nbc's kristin welker who is awaiting the president in las vegas. kristin, we've been hearing some conservatives complain about the president's excellent working relationship with republican new jersey governor chris christie in the aftermath of the storm. how is the white house handling those complaints? >> well, martin, good afternoon. the white house publicly is saying they're not going to comment on the complaints or the president's visit really, what it could mean politically, because they say this is not a time for politics. i can tell you privately though that both democrats and republicans were a little bit surprise
live picture of air force one which has just touched down in las vegas in the battleground state of nevada. the president is expected to come down those stairs at any moment. the campaign -- a day after witnessing the devastation of hurricane sandy and just five days before the election, nevada will be the second of three stops today for the president, which began in wisconsin and will ultimately end in colorado. and here with a preview of the last days of campaigning is nbc's kristin welker...
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we're still waiting for the official results from the races in montana, nevada, and north dakota. mark halpern, if we go back to the top of that list, elizabeth warren versus scott brown, tight all the way. what did elizabeth warren do in the end to win? >> she ran as a democrat in a state where the president won by a big margin. >> that helps. >> very difficult. they knew if the president won by 20 seats or more, it will be difficult to overcome. she made very few mistakes. and now she'll become one of the leading voices in the senate for progressives around the country. >> what does she bring to the senate? >> she brings that passion. and from a real liberal left perspective in terms of economic issues. she is a consumer advocate. she will be aligned with bernie sanders the independent and several others on that side of the spectrum. she may make it very difficult for some of the regulators who are trying to do bank legislation and go along with business as usual. i think she will be a very strong voice. she has that spirit. she's proved she can be independent. she's not really
we're still waiting for the official results from the races in montana, nevada, and north dakota. mark halpern, if we go back to the top of that list, elizabeth warren versus scott brown, tight all the way. what did elizabeth warren do in the end to win? >> she ran as a democrat in a state where the president won by a big margin. >> that helps. >> very difficult. they knew if the president won by 20 seats or more, it will be difficult to overcome. she made very few mistakes....
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winning in colorado and, of course, he won by what we expected, a fairly wide margin in the state of nevada. he beat romney by five points in new hampshire, the state romney's family spends his summers. late last night virginia was called in the president's favor. and more than hurricane sandy, the employment rate, or even the auto bailout what proved decisive was cold, hard demographics. as the obama campaign predicted more than a year ago the white portion of the electorate would drop and it dropped from 74% to 72% in 2012. the president may have won just 39% of white voters but he carried nearly eight in ten nonwhite voters including a whopping 93% of african-americans. 71% of had a tinos, and 73% of asian voters. and despite all the predictions young voters wouldn't turn out, they made up a higher percentage of the electorate than they did four years ago. that's right. a higher percentage of the electorate. romney also fell short on the issue which was supposed to be his calling card for office and which voters picked as their top concern, the economy. nearly as many said the president
winning in colorado and, of course, he won by what we expected, a fairly wide margin in the state of nevada. he beat romney by five points in new hampshire, the state romney's family spends his summers. late last night virginia was called in the president's favor. and more than hurricane sandy, the employment rate, or even the auto bailout what proved decisive was cold, hard demographics. as the obama campaign predicted more than a year ago the white portion of the electorate would drop and it...
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heidi high votes in nevada. what we're going to see in virginia for example there'll be some romney tim kaine democrat votes. there will be romney claire mccass tell votes in missouri. one thing you'll see there will be structural ticket splitting that will be pretty measurable in a lot of these senate races. that's something we haven't even well that will ager i think well for democrats. >> always a pleasure to speak with both of you. thank you. stay with msnbc for all day coverage of the home stretch to election day. craig melvin continues our live coverage this afternoon at 2:00 eastern followed by a saturday edition of the cycle, news nation with cameron hall and now with alex wagner. nothing to turn your channel for there. >>> well, federal and state officials are taking extreme measures to bring more fuel to the region. trucks are going to distribute free fuel. free that is across the region. and millions of gallons of fuel are now flowing into new york ports. even more is coming. we're going to have a lot
heidi high votes in nevada. what we're going to see in virginia for example there'll be some romney tim kaine democrat votes. there will be romney claire mccass tell votes in missouri. one thing you'll see there will be structural ticket splitting that will be pretty measurable in a lot of these senate races. that's something we haven't even well that will ager i think well for democrats. >> always a pleasure to speak with both of you. thank you. stay with msnbc for all day coverage of...
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nevada, colorado, virginia, in particular and we have seen that there's been so much damage to the republican brand this year not only with, you know, with voting blocs such as women and african-americans but particularly with latinos who by the way most people will remember voted in huge numbers for george bush in 2000. he received 35% of the hispanic vote in 2000. and in 2012 latinos no longer feel at home within the republican party of today. so barack obama, you can see it's a big part of his coalition. we'll be going out knocking on doors and doing everything he can to get the hispanic vote particularly in swing states. >> michael let's broaden this thing out a bit. there's a headline from politico that got my attention this morning. obama's demographic gamble, quote obama is likely to get blown out among white voters on election day narrowly lose independents nationwide and yet may still win based on historic margins among groups that off ten lean democratic but don't vote in high waits. latin jobs african-american, young people and unmarried women as well. do you see this unfolding com
nevada, colorado, virginia, in particular and we have seen that there's been so much damage to the republican brand this year not only with, you know, with voting blocs such as women and african-americans but particularly with latinos who by the way most people will remember voted in huge numbers for george bush in 2000. he received 35% of the hispanic vote in 2000. and in 2012 latinos no longer feel at home within the republican party of today. so barack obama, you can see it's a big part of...
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now have it, which is in those eight states, ones we know, florida, new hampshire, iowa, virginia, nevada, colorado, new hampshire, i think ohio belongs in that group. i put it on myself i should have put it in there a few days before now. >> mark halperin, take a look at nbc news poll, iowa, president up but wisconsin and new hampshire, we're talking about a really closely fought race. >> based on the totality of the public and private polling the only us in is on governor romney to depp street get to 270 electoral votes. i think governor romney starts with a challenge which is florida, north carolina, and colorado. if he can win those three, and i think he's got a decent chance in all, although the president hasn't given up on colorado and florida, then he needs to find a couple other -- a couple of options, one is to just win ohio. if he can't win ohio, and virginia also, he needs to win virginia also, okay, if he can't win ohio he needs to find another way. states of the three polls you showed as well as pennsylvania, michigan, he needs to offset a loss in ohio. ohio's the simplest an
now have it, which is in those eight states, ones we know, florida, new hampshire, iowa, virginia, nevada, colorado, new hampshire, i think ohio belongs in that group. i put it on myself i should have put it in there a few days before now. >> mark halperin, take a look at nbc news poll, iowa, president up but wisconsin and new hampshire, we're talking about a really closely fought race. >> based on the totality of the public and private polling the only us in is on governor romney...